Foundation · Explanatory preview

Density is not probability

A density measures probability per unit of position. Probability belongs to an interval and is its area under the curve.

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What does the height of a probability curve mean?

Divide a ruler into bins. The fraction of observations in a bin estimates its probability. Dividing that fraction by the bin width estimates a density. Changing the ruler from metres to micrometres changes the numerical density but not the probability of the same physical interval.

P(aXb)=abp(x)dxP(a\le X\le b)=\int_a^b p(x)\,dx

The probability of the interval from a to b is the integral of the density over that interval.

A continuous distribution gives probability zero to any single exact position. At the starting time the ideal point source is instead an atom of probability one, not a finite curve with infinite height.

One worked example

A uniform density of 0.25 per micrometre on a four-micrometre interval has total probability one. A one-micrometre subinterval has probability 0.25; a two-micrometre subinterval has probability 0.5.

A stopping point: Always distinguish curve height, interval area and an individual observation.

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